Hits and misses – 5 marketing / FMCG predictions for 2016

Last year, I gave my predictions on what I thought would happen in 2016 in the world of marketing. I also wrote that I’ll visit the post a year later to check how good my predictions were. I am a little late, but… How did I do in my predictions?

1. Rise of the marketing geek:
   • Not sure – Not being inside the industry for a few years now, I don’t know how much emphasis companies are placing on justifying marketing decisions nowadays. But, what I’ve noticed from outside is that even technology companies like Google have started taking in more ‘creative types’ (who don’t understand data that well) into their core marketing functions. Having said this, the cost pressures in a slowing economy have made some thought leaders questions antiquated processes and lack of standards and measurements and verification.
2. Big data – the buzz word:
   • Some time away – This one I am sure is some time away. Yes, data is being captured at a never before rate. But the question is, is it being looked at? Partly, the old helms manning the adoption  are to be blamed for not trying to understand this data. And partly the companies capturing this data are to be blamed for not understanding use cases and how this data can be better integrated and effectively used.
3. The rise of the super regulator:
   • Getting there – I wrote that the government will face pressures to start regulating products and ads better. And, in the process work towards unifying product and ad regulations into one agency. This of course didn’t happen. But what has happened is that the government gave more teeth to various agencies. Plus, they’ve also figured out ways to support and use powers of one another to enforce rules more effectively. Self governing bodies like ASCI got endorsement from regulators, ministries and courts;  Price regulation bodies like NPPA have been brutal in including more and more items into price control lists; And finally, the FDA has been waking up and causing major heartburn to companies once in a while.
4. E-Commerce – beginning of the end:
   • Fairly accurate – Valuations have been slashed left, right, and center (Flipkart, Ola). Top management have been making an exodus (albeit to other international firms in similar spaces) (Flipkart, Ola) and companies are cutting manpower like never before (Snapdeal).
5. Healthcare – start of the boom:
   • So wrong –  Chunks of Private Equity money go into Pharma (49% of investments) followed by Hospitals and Diagnostics. While the number of deals was on a declining trend since ’12, PE investments in Healthcare & Life Sciences sector touched a record high of $1.6 billion in 2015 (see the healthcare section in this report). Then, in 2016, the healthcare sector (excluding life sciences, pharmaceuticals and medical devices and apps) witnessed a 16% decline in value (18% overall), with $0.6 billion invested across 24 deals. When I was writing the trend post, I was also thinking about the e-com type startups hacking away to get better efficiencies into the system. But even here, the number of deals started declining since Q1 ’16 and even in ’15 the numbers were propped up by 2 mega deals. The startup story in healthcare in India seems over until another copycat of new technology / service emerges.